In the midst of the unrelenting summer heat and climbing temperatures we just witnessed the biggest democratic exercise on this Earth come to an end. The voting for the ‘mother-of-all-elections’ is over and the fate of all candidates, parties, alliances have been sealed waiting to be declared on the 4th of June. This election is particularly very crucial for many and most in more than one way. For the ruling dispensation, any dent in their prospects in this election would severely hurt all that they have set out to achieve while also largely undoing many of the grand political moves they have taken over the last 10 years and irretrievable affect the grand plans which PM Modi has been promising. It would not just expose the vulnerability of their Invincible General but also bring him crashing down to the ground as just another mere Political Leader who attempted to conquer more than he should have ever even dreamt of.
For the opposition, it would be too mild to say that this is indeed their ‘now-or-never’ moment atleast for the near foreseeable future. If they don’t make it big, forget about winning this time, most of the motley group would surely be relegated to the less important chapter of contemporary political history of Bharat. For some it is not just another ‘coming-of-age’ moment but an existential battle for survival and also a fight for their political relevance.
When the stakes are so varied and high besides being an all-or-nothing contest format, it is natural to see all the claims, counter-claims, projections, hype, declaration of bravado and prediction of doom for the opponent flying between both sides. The Exit Polls factory started throwing out numbers since the moment they were allowed to do so by the ECI and most of them appear to be confused or cautious at the first glance.
Jubilant at the trends coming, the Modi-led BJP and their partners have started their muted celebrations while the opposing Congress-led Bloc has started accusing all the Exit Polls as manufactured, falsified and grossly off the mark. Obviously, one of them seems to have got it completely wrong or faking their confidence for some reason best known to them. Let us look for the reason for such disparity in claims and also if there is something most of the people have been completely missing or refusing to acknowledge.
In the largest battlefront of the war being fought on 7 phases, one of the main stakeholder and Commander of the Opposition has predicted that BJP is going to win only 1 out of the 80 Seats in Uttar Pradesh that is up for grabs which means, BJP will lose 62 out of 63 Seats it held in 2019. (Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/lucknow/bjp-will-win-only-one-seat-in-up-claims-akhilesh-yadav-azamgarh-rally-9343798/). On another relatively large front, another Opposition Commander has confidently declared that BJP will not get any traction and Seats in Tamil Nadu which sends 39+1 Winners to the Lok Sabha. (Source: https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil-nadu/2024/Apr/10/exclusive-bjp-still-not-able-to-understand-the-political-climate-of-tamil-nadu-mk-stalin). There are many similar statements of grandiose from the ruling dispensation too which does sound bit far-fetched by some stretch of imagination certainly to those who are not deeply ideologically aligned or committed. Now comes the point as to why such varied disparity in these claims and counterclaims.
After the last Phase of the elections were over, the Congress President went to the extent of claiming that they were going to get majority and form the next Government.
By ordinary logic it would be greater misery and embarrassment for any political party to get a result completely contrary to their claims than just quietly losing the contest. It would reflect their disconnect from ground reality and also with the aspirations of the general voters. But still the opposition is indulging in this strategy brazenly and relentlessly. From the media, to psephologists to political analysts everyone has been calling this election as a ‘wave-free’ election which means it is being assumed that there is no specific issue or emotion or appeal which could be a potential cause to tilt the opinion of significant number of voters to one side.
But is it really so?
NO! There is indeed an undetected Wave which is either being ignored or misread. The Wave of Shri Ram. If after the 1989 elections, any election has been influenced by the Ram Mandir issue, it has to be this one. Let us analyse this a bit deeper.
Till the end of last year, even the most ardent admirer of BJP or the most committed detractor would agree that Modi 2.0 surely scored on infrastructure development and foreign affairs management but then there were surely many other issues which hurt them negatively which rendered the position of BJP far from being invincible. They had lost Karnataka and Telangana recently, won Chhattisgarh which was a complete surprise to many. Haryana was clearly stumbling; Punjab was on the boil. The state leaderships in the states of MP and Rajasthan were still untested. These States made up for 120/543 Seats up for grabs. Add to this, Tamil Nadu which had given them 3.62%, Kerala a meagre 13% and Andhra Pradesh a pathetic 0.98% with Zero Seats in return in their previous attempt. These 3 States send85/543 Winners to the Lok Sabha. Indeed, some gains were predicted and expected in North-Eastern States, Bengal and Odisha but in most of these the States which account for 63/543 there were formidable satraps standing on the way. Maharashtra and Bihar which send 88/543 was nothing short of a nightmare for any psephologist as much as for any Political combination. Not many would say with assurance which side the loyalty of the confused voter would eventually tilt in the absence of any pronounced emotion.
Yet, the Exit Polls are showing superlative gains for BJP in Telangana, deep inroads in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Tamil Nadu besides BJP largely standing firm in Karnataka along with the expected gains elsewhere. What has changed in the South of Vindhyas which could never be tapped by the BJP earlier. Yes, inspired local leadership particularly in Tamil Nadu has to be given the credit but without doubt, the opening of Shri Ram Mandir at Ayodhya has very significantly tilted the mood. It is estimated that an average of 1.5 Lakh pilgrims have been visiting Ayodhya every day which makes it close to 2 Crore by May-end not accounting for the surge during Sri Ramanavami and also the unprecedented rush of pilgrim right after the opening in January. (Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/ayodhya-ram-mandir-attracting-1-to-1-5-lakh-pilgrims-daily-temple-trust/articleshow/108453538.cms).
Most people make the mistake of considering Shri Ram Mandir movement and the issue as that which affected the Hindi heartland and many had even gone to extent of declaring that ‘South” India was different from ‘North’ India and so on after the State elections in Telangana and Karnataka. Some pathetic politicians even interpreted it as a cue for South India to cede from Bharat. Yes, South of India if we include Maharashtra too, indeed has some striking differences from North of India or for that reason even East of India. Why that, every State of India is different in many ways from the other not just in terms of food, language and dress but also in terms of expressing their political mood on the same issue. We have seen that even in momentous elections like the one in 1977 after the Emergency. Making some back-of-the-envelope calculations would render it safe to assume that close to 1 Crore people from the Southern States have visited Ayodhya and seen for themselves how new Cities be built on the foundations of heritage and faith which were almost given up to destiny till recently. It would be no exaggeration to say that, anyone who would have visited Ayodhya after January this year would have surely gone back ‘converted’ and with the determination to vote for Modi. There can be no other explanation to what we are observingin the Exit Poll trends.
The BJP clearly didn’t overplay the card as a strategy which now makes sense, knowing it well it was for everyone to see for themselves that they had achieved more than what they had promised on the issue while the opposition continued their ostrich-like approach on this emotive issue. Some by refusing the invite for the inauguration and some by berating the significance of Temple itself served no good purpose for the I.N.D.I. Bloc. The opposition never could estimate what Shri Ram Mandir at Ayodhya means for Millions of Hindus and even when they got the opportunity to make up to some extent they declined the Invite to the heart of the Voters.
If the trend as seen in the Exit Polls holds or betters, then there can be no denying that there indeed was a wave in this election. A silent, undetected wave of Hindu aspiration which yet again, has swept all those forces who had aligned to defeat it.
Call it, the undetected wave which became a Tsumani…
(The writer is an author of the book “Cast Your Caste Away: The Clarion Call of Sanatana Dharma”)
