Dr. Manan Dwivedi takes a look at the possible permutations and combinations in the US-China Matrix following the change in US administration as Democrats replace the Republicans in the White House.
The relationship between the talloned Dragon, People’s Republic of China and United States of America stands on an interesting cusp. It can be safely fathomed that the crassly confrontationist game play between Washington and Beijing will mellow down though President Elect Joe Biden has declared that the tariff structure prepared by the US trade establishment on Beijing will remain the self same even under the Democrats. Still, the feelers sent to the Chinese indicate a lesser confrontationist tedium with the People’s Republic of China despite the warning issued by the President Elect that China ought to mend its way and prepare to slow down and downsize its past vitriolic and Bigg weapons approach. Recently, it has been pointed out that amongst the top 30 companies ascertaining the future of the Global Arms trade fourteen of them happen to be Chinese in origin with an impressive slew of nations in Africa, Middle East, Asia Pacific and South America being the weapons clientele of the Han. Also, the manner in which China fuses together its hard and soft power happens to be a difficult brew for nations such as India and United States though it can be safely ascertained through an indepth statistical approach of study that even a weakened an d inward looking United States is more than a match for the rising tedium of Chinese stealth, pernicious pelf and ill-gotten wealth which might be a body blow to the Yes sayers of unbridled and uncontrolled sway of globalization, convergence and Interdependence and now the universality of a network society.
Business World reports in an ANI reportage that, “Yan Xuetong, Dean of the Institute of International Relations at Beijing’s Tsinghua University said there would be an “uneasy peace” in the decade ahead, featuring an increasingly fierce rivalry between the two great powers and hedging policy moves from smaller parties, reported South China Morning Post. “Unpredictability, uncertainty will still be the basic characteristic of the coming years… The world will definitely become more chaotic and anarchic.” Thus, the Chinese are very careful and precatious when it comes to engaging in skullduggery with the United States of America. China is all wiry and wary about the American Outreach of its Empire which is differentiated with the Neo colonial and neo imperliastic nature of the much targeted and critiqued, United States of America. It can also be contended that United States of America under the future suzerainty of Joe Biden will augment multi lateral pressure on China and the larger frame of the US Trade and Diplomatic outreach with Beijing will more or less remain the same in the coming years, especially in the contemporary context of Geo Politics and Covid induced anarchy, national policy reversals and extravagances. What will emerge for New Delhi will make for crucial strategic and geo economic plausibility as India will seek the support of the self-same American diatribe against the despicable Han establishment and their renegade revisionism. Rancor and recrimination in the aftermath of President Trump’s stridently aggressive policy on China might not change at all though all, “the works” and the “ rest of the geo strategic and geo economic paraphernalia” might witness a re look and slight adaptations and mitigations utilizing a “Clime” change lingo. The Trade war might ensue afterall in the general matrix of the exchanges between the twin behemoths which unfortunately Beijing is not even after its much tom tommed “rise and surge” Globally.
The New York Times terms the Biden act on China as a kind of tough balancing act in a toxic relationship. How far that is true? Is a million dollar poser. Ana Swanson writes in the American national daily, New York Times that, “ On Thursday, Mr. Trump issued an executive order barring investments in Chinese firms with military ties. The hard choices for Mr. Biden will include deciding whether to maintain tariffs on about $360 billion worth of Chinese imports, which have raised costs for American businesses and consumers, or whether to relax those levies in exchange for concessions on economic issues or other fronts, like climate change..” The President Elect has a tight rope walking exercise in the near future as abalancing act between keeping China under relentless pressure along with working with them in the spheres of Covid and Clime change and other themes premised upon the much misinterpreted auspices of “ Common but differentiated responsibilities.” The President Elect might not forget being a true Blue Democrat that China happens to be the second largest economy of the larger international system. The theme of job creation and providing a stimulus to the besieged American economy will be the toughest asks for the President Elect in the aftermath of certain bold policy decisions having been made by President Donald Trump. We may not call it as a liberal endeavor to clean up the American policy but still a trademark mellowing down is on the offing for sure.
( The writer is faculty at Indian Institute of Public Administration. Views Expressed are Personal)
